Overview
Climate change is already altering the risk profile of Ireland’s strategic road network and highways, with current projections pointing to winter rainfall increasing by over 20% and the frequency of severe storms rising by up to 3.6 times by 2080.
This stands to significantly change the risk profile of roads, drainage systems, structures and surrounding assets.
Much of Ireland’s road network is relatively modern, but the conditions it was designed, maintained and prioritised against are shifting. Traditional asset management approaches that were built around historic condition data, lifecycle modelling and funding-based prioritisation remain essential. However, they do not always capture how assets may behave under future climate scenarios. This matters because climate resilience is ultimately a decision-making challenge. Local authorities and infrastructure owners need to know not only which assets are in poor condition today, but which assets are likely to become more vulnerable tomorrow, where failure would have the greatest network impact, and how limited maintenance budgets can be targeted to reduce risk over the long term.
To build a more resilient road network, Ireland needs asset management approaches that are forward-looking, risk-based and climate-informed. By combining climate modelling with asset data, inspection insight and maintenance history, infrastructure asset owners can move beyond reacting to potential disruptions and start planning for uncertainty. As a result, this will enable them to strengthen safety, reliability and long-term value across the road networks.
Why climate risk for Ireland’s road network needs rethinking
For road authorities, climate change is no longer a resilience challenge on the horizon. It is already changing the operating conditions of the road network. Transport Infrastructure Ireland (TII) has previously reported that more frequent extreme weather is already impacting its networks, with ageing infrastructure, asset deterioration and increasing usage demand, all likely to increase vulnerability to climate hazards such as flooding and extreme heat. This matters because road infrastructure is made up of various connected assets that respond to climate pressures in different ways. For instance, heavier rainfall can overwhelm drainage systems, saturate earthworks, increase scour risk around structures, and accelerate the deterioration of road surfaces. That means that one specific asset issue can quickly become a whole network issue if it affects safety, capacity or access to key routes.
This is why climate risk needs to be analysed not only as an environmental issue, but as an asset management and service resilience issue. The question for road infrastructure owners, operators and local authorities is not simply whether a road, structure or drainage asset is performing as it should today, but how its risk profile may change under future climate conditions, and what that means for reliability, maintenance planning and long-term investment decisions. Without that forward-looking view, these organisations risk prioritising maintenance works based on the assets that are in the highest need today, rather than those that may create the greatest disruption, cost or safety risk tomorrow. What emerges is a clear inflection point; to deliver climate‑resilient infrastructure, traditional asset management is no longer feasible on its own at this moment in time.
Building resilience – the case for rethinking asset management
Traditional asset management approaches have served owners and operators of road infrastructure assets well over the last few decades by helping them understand asset conditions, forecast deterioration and prioritise investment within available funding. Historic inspection records, lifecycle models and condition data remain essential to effective maintenance planning – but on their own, they are no longer enough. Why? Because the challenge now is that many existing models are largely built around what has happened before in the past. This approach provides a reasonable basis for planning in a more stable climate, it isn’t necessarily fit for one that is affected by intense rainfall with higher frequency of flooding alongside other extreme weather patterns.
For example, a drainage asset that has historically performed adequately may become more vulnerable under higher rainfall scenarios. An embankment that has shown limited deterioration may face greater instability risk as ground conditions change. A road surface that meets current condition thresholds may deteriorate faster if exposed to more frequent flooding or temperature variation. This however, does not mean existing asset data loses value. Quite the opposite, as asset data becomes more powerful when combined with climate projections and risk modelling.
The opportunity is to move from condition-led prioritisation alone towards a more climate-informed view of asset risk, one that factors in not only current condition, but exposure, vulnerability, consequences of failure, and the value of intervention over time.
From climate risk to maintenance action
Understanding climate risk only creates value if it changes the decisions road authorities are able to make. Knowing that rainfall intensity is increasing, or that flooding risk is shifting, is important, but the real challenge is translating that insight into practical maintenance strategies, investment decisions and interventions that strengthen network resilience.
This is where climate-informed asset modelling can make a real difference. Amey’s modelling capability is designed to help road authorities move from insight to action by bringing together data that has traditionally sat in isolation. Climate projections are combined with asset-level data such as inspection records, maintenance histories and known failure patterns alongside the practical input of subject matter experts. This creates a more dynamic view of infrastructure performance, reflecting both asset complexity and the uncertainty of future conditions.
Rather than producing a single forecast, the approach allows different scenarios to be tested. By simulating how assets respond to changing climate conditions and maintenance strategies, it becomes possible to see how risk develops across a network, and as a result, highlighting where vulnerabilities are concentrated and how they may evolve over time. This provides a stronger foundation for decision-making and enables maintenance strategies to be explored in a structured way that makes the trade-offs between cost and risk more explicit. This results in organisations being able to target investment more effectively.
Climate-informed asset modelling also enables the use of these asset insights to determine how limited budgets can deliver the greatest reduction in risk. In practice, risk cannot be eliminated entirely; the challenge is identifying the most effective balance and prioritising interventions that will have the greatest impact in a changing climate. This matters because budgets are finite. Climate-informed modelling makes the trade-offs more explicit through identifying key things such as where investment will deliver the greatest resilience benefit, where risk can be managed through monitoring, and where delaying intervention could increase whole-life cost or network disruption. In doing so, it helps decision-makers move beyond short-term prioritisation and build maintenance plans that are more evidence-led, tangible and resilient under uncertainty.
For Ireland’s road network, this shift is critical. As climate pressure increases, resilience will depend not only on the condition of individual assets, but on the ability to make better decisions across the network. This means targeting the right interventions, in the right places, and at the right times.
The nation’s road resilience will depend not only on how much is invested, but on how intelligently that investment is prioritised. As climate uncertainty grows, road authorities will need stronger evidence to understand where risk is emerging and which interventions will deliver the greatest long-term value. A climate-informed approach backed by data intelligence gives road authorities the evidence to plan with greater confidence. That is the real value of a technology-led approach to asset modelling and management. It turns uncertainty into a clearer basis for action that helps authorities strengthen resilience, optimise finite budgets available to them, and protect the long-term reliability of the roads local communities rely on.